The first year of rule was the deadliest for Roman emperors. The risk of meeting a violent end decreased over the next seven years, plateauing and then increasing again after 12 years.
) were, for the purpose of the study, treated as having had a natural death because the true cause of their death could not be confirmed. But despite these limitations, Saleh discovered a bathtub-like curve, mimicking a pattern frequently seen in electrical components.
The models show that the risk of violent death was highest during the first year of an emperor's reign. Likewise, engineering components will often fail early on due to a failure to function as designed. While there may be specific factors involved in any one emperor's death, Saleh says these early deaths can be generalized as a failure to meet the demands of the job.
Bust of Emperor Didius Julianus a ruler who met an early violent death. Didius ruled for just 66 days—the shortest of any emperor during the unified Roman Empire. He was executed a little more than two months after he first bought his way to the throne in an event called the “Auction of the Empire.”The risk of meeting a violent death then stabilizes as the reign approaches the eight-year mark, before increasing again around year 12.
Commodus died after 12 years of rule at the hands of an athlete called Narcissus, who strangled the Emperor in his bath on 31 December 192 CE. It was part of a plot that involved his mistress Marcia.
"Although they may appear as random events when taken singularly, these results indicate that there may have been underlying processes governing the length of each rule until death.":"While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty. You can, for example, never foretell what any one man will do, but you can say with precision what an average number will be up to.
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