A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan.
Even as disinflation takes hold and recession looms, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have to deliver another uncomfortable message of more monetary tightening ahead before the Fed hunkers down for its final meeting of the year.to Powell's speech at 1330 Washington time , not least because it's one of the final set pieces before the Fed's self-imposed blackout period ahead of its December 14 policy decision.
But unless he goes very much against the grain of his colleagues, Powell will likely reinforce market expectations of downshift in the size of interest rate rises but point to a terminal rate of 5% or higher next year and push back on hopes of any early easing from there. While inflation looks past its peak, labour markets remain super tight and Powell speaks before another crucial nationwide employment report on Friday. However, he will get a glimpse on Wednesday of this month's private sector payrolls from the ADP survey and a readout onFutures market expectations for peak Fed rates next May ticked back above 5% ahead of the speech, with about 35 basis points of rate cuts from there still priced by yearend. Ten-year Treasury yields were steady at 3.
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