Over half the Conservative MPs standing down at the next election risk seeing their seat taken by Labour, data analysis shows 👀 Here are the 12 seats where Tory MPs are standing down to watch out for
Over half the Conservative MPs standing down at the next election risk seeing their seat taken by Labour, data analysis shows.
Fresh figures from Electoral Calculus, due to be published Thursday, suggest Labour could win up to 420 seats at the next election while the Conservatives will lose 211, taking their total to 154. Seven of these constituencies are currently vulnerable to Labour, including Altrincham and Sale West, the seat of 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady, which has a 76 per cent chance of being won by Labour.so-called “Red Wall” seats won by the Conservatives at the last electionThey include Bishop Auckland MP Dehenna Davison, Wolverhampton West MP Stuart Anderson, West Bromwich MP Nicola Richards and Stoke-on-Trent Central MP Jo Gideon.
It predicts that, based on current polling, the Conservatives could get 38.7 per cent of the vote, while the Lib Dem’s would come in second with 30.1 per cent.Douglas Ross has been MP for Moray since 2017 but has faced fierce competition from the SNP in recent years. In 2019, he won with one of the slimmest majorities in the UK, beating the SNP’s Laura Mitchell by just 513 votes.
Sir Graham has been MP for Altrincham and Sale West since the constituency was founded in 1997, and currently has a majority of 6,139, but announced he was standing down earlier this year. Her seat looks likely to return to Labour hands, with the Conservatives’ vote share slashed from 45.4 per cent to 25.1 per cent.
Labour, meanwhile, is expected to increase its share from 35.9 per cent to 45.2 per cent at the next election.Stuart Anderson, who is currently Assistant Government Whip, won Wolverhampton South West by just 1,661 votes in 2019, taking the seat from Labour for the first time since 1997.
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