Republicans assumed they would reclaim the Senate majority. Now, Mitch McConnell is lowering expectations and it's worth understanding why. - MaddowBlog
Many Republicans have spent the last year and a half looking forward to the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP only needs a net gain of one seat to reclaim a Senate majority, and with history and polling on the party’s aside, the results seemed like a foregone conclusion., the party’s would-be Senate majority leader is starting to lower expectations.
The Kentuckian didn’t literally say, “Too many of our candidates are too ridiculous for us to succeed,” but that seemed to be the implicit subtext. Right off the bat, it’s worth emphasizing that the Senate GOP leader is right to be concerned: To the extent that the wind was at Republicans’ backs, that’s no longer the case. On June 1, for example, the FiveThirtyEightsaid the GOP had a 60 percent chance of winning a majority this year. As of this morning, that number stands at 37 percent.
The minority leader is also right about “candidate quality” having a lot to do with election outcomes. This year, Republicans are running several dubious Senate nominees who are seeking elected office for the first time — see, for example, Pennsylvania’s Mehmet Oz, Arizona’s Blake Masters, Ohio’s J.D. Vance, and Georgia’s Herschel Walker — and there's ample evidence that they're struggling in their efforts.
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