But the cost—and the length—of a new truce remains unclear
CALL IT a victory. Compared with crippling tariffs on all exports to the United States that President Donald Trump had threatened to impose, starting at 5% on June 10th and escalating to 25%, just about any deal was going to look good for Mexico.
A saga that had threatened to hobble the still-young presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador became instead a crisis averted. Mexico’s president announced that a rally he had planned in central Tijuana in “defence of national dignity” would now become a celebration of Mexico’s success at the negotiating table.
The deal allows the United States to demand more from Mexico within 90 days if numbers do not fall as much as the Trump administration would like. But it is less impressive than Mr Trump claims. “Remain In Mexico” was already set for expansion. Mexican officials describe the deployment of the national guard as an “acceleration” of what they were planning to do anyway.
The peso climbed upon news of the deal, but not to the level it was before Mr Trump first unsheathed his tariffs threat. That suggests that markets have priced in the chance of a return to conflict. It also suggests that investors do not believe that the USMCA, Mr Trump’s recently struck revamp of the NAFTA trade pact, provides the kind of economic certainty that free-trade deals are supposed to.
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