Why the busted forecast? It was a combination of scientific uncertainty and ill-based media hype.
Auroras light up the night sky, in Finse, the southern part of Norway, on Feb. 28. By Matthew Cappucci March 29 at 10:39 AM For skywatchers in the United States as far south as Northern Virginia and Illinois, last Saturday night was slated to be memorable.For days, local and national media outlets had been heralding an anticipated display of the ethereal aurora borealis – more commonly known as the northern lights.
USA Today advertised the “rare chance to see the northern lights,” while Insider asserted they could shimmer as low as Chicago and New York. NBC News announced the aurora borealis had odds of reaching “far south." The SOHO – or Solar and Heliospheric Observatory – is a spacecraft that’s been peering at the sun since 1996. It provides these initial images that assist scientists like Skov in modeling solar eruptions. The Solar Dynamics Observatory, launched in 2011, also has a similar role. But that’s about it in terms of useful real-time data. Other observing platforms can send higher-resolution images, but by the time they reach earth the solar storm has already hit – or missed.
It comes as no surprise that accurate predictions of space weather and auroral activity are hard to come by. But Skov, creator of the popular site SpaceWeatherWoman.com, is trying to change that. She’s built a following of 50,000 followers, whom she taps for current observations from all around the globe. She stressed the importance of citizen scientists in the endeavor, whose help she has enlisted to make better short-term aurora forecasts during big events.
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