Disease forecasters struggle with the complex impacts of climate change
“The baseline assumption is that warmer climate will make vector-borne disease worse because people observe that most [such] diseases occur in the tropics, and in more temperate places they occur in the summer,” Mordecai says. But studies like hers show, she says, that “the effect of rising temperatures can go either way.”Ecology Letters
The company running the estates, Brooke Bond Kenya Ltd., provided health care for all employees and their families and kept meticulous records. In the late 1990s, a scientist at the U.S. Army Medical Research Unit in Nairobi named Dennis Shanks “climbed up into a loft in the Kericho tea estate and managed to identify some boxes of malaria admissions and cases going all the way back to 1965,” says Robert Snow, a malaria researcher at the Kenya Medical Research Institute.
He and other malaria researchers worry that the growing focus on climate change is a distraction from more pressing questions about how to deliver antimalarial measures to those who most need them. “I don’t for one minute doubt the significance to the planet of global warming,” Snow says. “But in the malaria space, I do feel that it gets more attention than it deserves.”
A woman in Lagos, Nigeria, is one of hundreds of millions of people who develop malaria each year. Warming has likely increased malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, one analysis shows.“Our study resolves a decades-old debate about one of the earliest health impacts of global warming,” Carlson writes in the preprint’s abstract. But the study has not been peer reviewed yet. And there are important caveats.
Even for malaria the respites may be transient. The mosquito and parasite could adapt to higher temperatures. And another mosquito carrying the same parasite,, which is the urban malaria that’s now expanding throughout Africa, actually tolerates much higher temperatures,” she says.
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