SUPPORT for independence is “not going away”, a major new analysis has found.
He told the Sunday National: “There has been quite a lot of writing, usually from outside Scotland in the last 10 years or so, which has suggested Scottish nationalism is a bit like Trump or Brexit.“That has become a standard explanation of the various populist movements aroundBut he said: “My view from this analysis is that is simply not tenable, that is not the nature now for independence.
“That of course is another explanation to the kind of politics we are seeing and we have seen in the Scottish Parliament – so even slightly away from the independence question – debating things like civil liberties, civil rights, the rights of minorities, the attitude to racism and migration, the widening of opportunity to people living in poverty.
“So the two things are linked – part of the explanation for the growth in support for independence is a feeling that Britain or the UK can no longer achieve these liberal goals that this newly educated liberal electorate tends to favour.” “If you look at the older generations, people born before the late 50s going back in time, yes as they got older their support for independence tended to decline,”“But if you look at people certainly born since the 1970s, there is no evidence at all that as they got older their support for independent has declined.”
“I think one of the reasons it has not been noticed is because, as is well known, the support did rise above 50% during the Covid period where’s more competent approach to communication contrasted with Boris Johnson,” he said. “Clearly generational replacement is not in itself going to produce a majority for independence – but nonetheless if this data is the only effect happening, that is generational replacement and everything else remains the same, then there will be a stable majority for independence which will go above 60% by the early 2030s, I think,” he said.
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