The Brazilian president faces resistance from Congress, the state oil company and agribusiness
won Brazil’s election last year, climate activists the world over breathed a sigh of relief. His right-wing predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, had gutted the environmental agency, turned a blind eye to illegal gold-mining and undermined indigenous rights. Lula, by contrast, promised to end illegal deforestation in the Amazon and lead international efforts to halt climate change. On June 5th the left-winger outlined an ambitious plan to stop illegal deforestation in the Amazon by the end of the decade.
Several problems are getting in Lula’s way. For a start, he is far less popular than under his first two terms, between 2003 and 2010. Back then, he mostly commanded a majority in Congress. But he only won last year’s election against Mr Bolsonaro by a slim 1.8 percentage-point margin. And Congress has veered to the right. He leads a rowdy coalition that has frequently failed to vote with him. He has had to resort to pork-barrel tactics to win support. Even that has not entirely worked.
Part of the agriculture sector’s expansion happened under Lula’s first two administrations, when trade with China accelerated. Yet Lula has struggled to win back the sector’s support, which rallied behind Mr Bolsonaro. In April Lula’s agriculture minister had his invitation to the country’s biggest agricultural fair rescinded, after Mr Bolsonaro announced that he would attend. Later, Lula called the organisers of the event “fascists”.
Meanwhile, Petrobras’s five-year business strategy barely mentions investments in renewable energies. It says $4.4bn, or 6% of its capital expenditure over the period, will go towards “strengthening [the company’s] low carbon position” and most of that will be destined towards decarbonising oil production, rather than fostering renewable energy.
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