Reports of a recession have been greatly exaggerated, writes Michael Brush.
The bears are clawing at the U.S. stock market. Let’s look at six reasons why they believe stocks are about to tumble — and why they will be wrong.
Besides, OPEC+ members know a recession would sharply reduce oil prices and related revenue. So, they would increase supply if oil rose to recession-inducing levels. 4. Fed policy takes 12-18 months to kick in, which tells us a recession will start in the fourth quarter of 2023: During last year’s stock market rout, bears told us the declines would get really bad in the first quarter of this year, since that’s when a recession would begin. Their logic: Fed tightening takes 12 months to kick in. When that didn’t happen, they pushed the timeline out by two quarters.
An analysis of second quarter earnings calls by Goldman Sachs confirms this. Just 7% of conference calls among Russell 3000 companies mentioned credit access issues, down from 15% during the banking crisis. Most of the comments about credit access were in the real estate sector. “We could not find any examples of companies implementing layoffs due to banking stress,” Goldman economist Jan Hatzius says.
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