The American cities which experienced the most deaths from the Spanish flu pandemic also suffered the biggest hits to their economies
MANY REGARD the idea of putting a price on human lives as morally repugnant. And yet that is the position in which many policymakers seemingly find themselves. Faced with the deadly covid-19 pandemic governments must decide how much economic disruption to tolerate in order to suppress the disease, or at least to slow its spread. President Donald Trump may have had the economic costs in mind when he tweeted on March 23rd, “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself.
Like covid-19, it reached different places at different times, with local governments offering different responses. These included school closures, quarantines and restrictions on business hours. Mr Correia and his colleagues found that the American cities which experienced the highest number of deaths from the flu pandemic also tended to suffer the biggest hits to their economies . The fatality rate was highly dependent on public policies.
Policymakers battling covid-19 might not view the experience of the Spanish flu, even in places that fought it relatively well, to be something to aim to repeat. But economists tend to think that the aggressive policies in place to fight the covid-19 epidemic are desirable. Afrom the University of Chicago asked a group of prominent economists whether abandoning America’s lockdown, at a time when infections could surge again, would cause more economic damage than maintaining the restrictions.
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