Labour won't win the 2024 general election by a landslide, and a coalition could be much worse ✒️ wallaceme for ipaperviews
– is overestimating the certainty of a landslide majority outcome for Labour at the next election.
The loss of the Scottish seats on which they used to rely has still not been reversed, which denies them scores of MPs who would otherwise be vital to a Westminster majority. There are three factors which could prick Labour’s ambition – slowly deflating, rather than outright bursting, their bubble. If Labour don’t make big enough inroads in Scotland and their nominal vote elsewhere proves soft, if more Tory incumbents than expected hang on even by slim majorities, and if a chunk of Conservative losses go to the Lib Dems rather than directly to the Opposition, then a hung parliament might well happen.
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