The Fed has just signaled it'll announce a taper next month, but Powell and two other key Fed officials are up for reappointment in the months ahead.
The Fed has just signaled it'll announce a taper next month, but Powell and two other key Fed officials are up for reappointment in the months ahead.
This is what has Jefferies strategist David Zervos warning that the Fed is on the precipice of making a big policy mistake. We spoke to him about this at the top of the show yesterday . He took the huge drop in consumer sentiment Friday as a major warning sign. It was followed by the New York manufacturing survey tanking yesterday, and now today's big retail sales miss.
"GDP is still up just 0.1% cumulatively since the end of 2019," Zervos said. "I don't understand why there's a rush [to taper] when we're still dealing with Delta." Even the inflation numbers are misleading, he warned. "We've had a decade of inflation misses, and a demographic shortage in the labor market still causing deflation and disinflation problems.
The irony is that just as the data have started missing--even homebuilder sentiment retreated this morning--the Fed has been carefully messaging itsturn with CNBC and The Wall Street Journal reporting they will likely announce tapering next month. The Fed can't turn on a dime here, Zervos warned. Not only do they tend to move slowly (remember how drawn out their about-face on rate cuts was
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