Swing voters could make all the difference in 2020—but just how many swing voters are there? FiveThirtyEight explores:
of registered voters as swing voters. Why is KFF’s number so much higher than our estimates using Mayer’s or Smidt’s approach? For one thing, KFF is trying to account for people who might not always vote but could turn out if motivated. Part of the problem with understanding just how many swing voters exist is that many potential voters don’t consistently turn out.
So while not all 30 percent of the registered voters who KFF grouped into its “swing voters” category areopen to being convinced by a good campaign, its polling does suggest that if turnout increases in 2020, there could be more swing voters than in 2016, since some of them spent the last presidential election cycle on the sidelines.
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