Electoral concerns could complicate Warren, Baldwin and Klobuchar’s chances at the number two slot on the ticket.
Every Democratic presidential nominee since the 1980s has picked a senator as their running mate, but if the party’s presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, does the same in 2020, he could risk what will be, at best, a razor-thin Senate majority.
“People really underestimate the fact that if we win the presidency, the second we win, we’re going to start losing almost every conceivable election where we don’t have an incumbent,” said David Shor, the director of political data science at Civis Analytics, which does data work for many major Democratic groups, including Senate Majority PAC, the major Democratic super PAC.
Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, though Democrats are mounting a strong challenge to take control of the chamber for the first time since 2014. Still, barring a Biden landslide, most strategists believe a Democratic majority at the start of 2021 is likely to rely on either a vice president casting a tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 or on a slim 51-49 advantage.
Under state laws, replacements for Klobuchar, Cortez Masto, Duckworth and Harris would serve until the 2022 election. The memo outlines a way for Warren to stay in the seat until the day before Massachusetts’ already scheduled Sept. 1 primary. With the Nov. 3 general election just two months later, a Baker appointee would only serve during a brief period when no major legislation is expected to be considered.
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