Did May's jobs report send a recessionary signal?
Though some media sources referred to a “screeching halt” in employment growth, such language provides a less accurate descriptor than a needless reach for drama.In any case, the figures were far from encouraging. Unemployment remained at a remarkably low 3.6% of the workforce. What gave cause for concern is that the economy added only some 75,000 new jobs last month, far slower than earlier in the year and certainly than 2018’s average of 223,000 new jobs a month.
Trade disputes with China and the more recent threat of one with Mexico have no doubt factored into this picture. Even though the tariff hikes have yet to have their full effect, the prospect of a trade war, especially an expanding one, surely has prompted businesses to rethink hiring and expansion plans. Declines in orders for new capital equipment, updated a week or so ago by the Commerce Department, certainly point to such a reconsideration.
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