Despite signs of a contraction in manufacturing and housing and a weakening consumer following the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 190,000 for the week ended January 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The median forecast of analysts polled by Econoday had the claims number rising from 205,000 to 215,000.
Yet the appetite for workers remains very strong and layoffs remain very low. The economy added 223,000 jobs in December, far above the 75,000 to 100,000 required to keep unemployment from rising. The unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in 50 years. Jobless claims, which are a proxy for layoffs, have been extremely low and have now fallen to the lowest level since September. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons is 1.7 to one, indicating an extremely unbalanced labor market.
Economists say companies may be engaging in “labor hoarding”—holding on to workers even though demand for products and services has sagged and the economy is expected to slow—after they had so much trouble rebuilding payrolls following the pandemic layoffs. Most economists say jobless claims are likely to stay low until some period after payroll growth drops significantly.
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