Job uncertainty still looms large for American workers despite low unemployment
shows just how much leverage employers hold over current and potential employees, even in a purportedly tight labor market where the official jobless rate has hovered at or below 4% for a year.Fatih Karahan, Brendan Moore and Laura Pilossoph
find that"unemployment risk constitutes one of the most significant sources of uncertainty facing workers in the United States." Around 20% of Americans see their job loss risk over the coming year as between 10% and 20%, while a substantial one tenth view the chances of losing their job as greater than 50%."Some individuals [believe] with certainty that they will lose their job over the course of the next year," the authors write in a blogpost.
That policymakers have chosen not to keep raising interest rates in the face of weakening economic data is, at the margins, a hopeful sign that officials are finally paying some attention to the indicator that really matters: wage growth for those Americans who need it most. Beyond the moral imperative, bottom-heavy wage gains stimulate the economy by channeling the benefits of the expansion back into consumer spending. The central bank has undershot its inflation target, a sign that the economy has long been operating well below its productive potential, forA Fed that bets on a trickle-up economy is much more likely to meet its elusive mandates of price stability and maximum employment.
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