Japan raised its estimates for long-term interest rates over the coming few years in twice-yearly fiscal projections issued on Tuesday, following the central bank's move last month to allow 10-year bond yields to move more widely.
The latest projections also showed Japan would miss its key budget-balancing target by the fiscal year ending March 2026, with a larger deficit than the one previously seen last July. The latest projections showed the budget target will be met in fiscal 2026.heaviest debt burdenThe government has been relying on rock-bottom borrowing costs for a decade under Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's aggressive monetary stimulus.
"We see underlying interest rates to be somewhat higher, which will cause outstanding government debt to deviate upward due to the BOJ's move last month," a Cabinet Office official said. "We expect underlying rate levels to stay." In comparison, the previous estimates issued in July showed long-term rates to stick to 0.1% in fiscal 2022-2025.
Assuming the baseline scenario of zero growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to turn upward in the latter half of the forecast period.The projections show that in case long-term interest rates rise by an additional 0.5 percentage-points, that would increase the government debt-to-GDP ratio by 3.3 percentage-points.
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