The world’s third-largest economy cannot afford a government that simply muddles through
The trait that propelled Mr Kishida to victory appears to be his inoffensiveness. His victory was engineered by a party establishment that cherishes the status quo. He isIndeed, the status quo is what precipitated the leadership election in the first place. After his predecessor, Abe Shinzo, stepped down last year because of ill health, Suga Yoshihide, the outgoing party president and prime minister, was seen by the party as a safe pair of hands.
It is not. Japan has avoided some of the worst pathologies of rich democracies, such as populism and extreme partisanship. Yet the ruling party’s persistent back-room dealmaking bodes ill for democracy. Because the opposition is a shambles, theis extremely unlikely to lose power in the coming elections. That makes its internal elections almost a substitute for national ones.
Who leads Japan matters. It is a big country, with 126m people and the third-largest economy in the world. It is a member of the7 and the Quad, a security grouping formed as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. It has championed free trade in America’s absence, and currently holds the chair of the, a trade pact that both China and Taiwan have applied to join. Yet it will be hard for Japan to take a leadership role on the global stage without a strong prime minister.
This week’s vote also augurs badly for Japan’s future. The country is stable, peaceful and prosperous. But it is ageing even faster than other mature democracies. Its labour force is shrinking; its pension and health-care costs are ballooning. A new leader needs bold ideas to deal with these ills, from boosting productivity to making the workplace more female-friendly. He also needs the charisma to sell such ideas to the public.
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