Jair Bolsonaro's government is one of “monumental confusion” says Claudio Couto of Fundação Getulio Vargas
main reasons why Jair Bolsonaro won last year’s presidential election in Brazil is that he promised to get the economy moving again after four years of slump. By naming Paulo Guedes, a free-marketeer, as his economic super-minister, he won the backing of big business and finance. Many assumed that the arrival of Mr Bolsonaro’s government in itself would breathe life into the economy. But three months in, it remains as moribund as ever.
Approval thus requires leadership from the top. That is absent. In his campaign Mr Bolsonaro denounced the corrupt “old politics” of pork-barrel bargaining in congress. Yet he has no alternative strategy to command the legislature. He has needlessly antagonised some allies, including Rodrigo Maia, the powerful speaker of the lower house.
The bigger problem is that Mr Bolsonaro has yet to show that he understands his new job. He has dissipated political capital on his prejudices, for example by calling for the armed forces to commemorate the anniversary on March 31st of a military coup in 1964. His is a government of “monumental confusion”, says Claudio Couto of Fundação Getulio Vargas, a university.
If the government has a linchpin, it is General Hamilton Mourão, the vice-president, who has attempted to impose some political discipline. Yet he is often at odds with the Bolsonaro family. Mr de Carvalho has called General Mourão an “idiot”, and said that if things continue as they are for the next six months “it’s all over.” Though they apportion the blame differently, others are starting to think the same.
Two of Brazil’s four previous elected presidents have been impeached because, as Mr Cardoso says, “they stopped being able to govern.” However much they abhor Mr Bolsonaro, democrats should not want him to fail to complete his term. It is still early days. But already his presidency faces a crucial test. “We have two alternatives,” his spokesman said this week. “Approve pension reform or sink into a bottomless pit.” If only his boss were as clear.
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