A hard-right government could jeopardise Italy’s access to its full share of the EU’s pandemic-recovery programme, worth more than €200bn ($203bn)
acted as a brake on the League, the two populist parties sent a wave of apprehension through Europe and clashed repeatedly with the European Commission. Back then, the combined vote share of the League and Italy’s other hard-right party, the Brothers of Italy , was below 22%.
Five years on the situation is different. The League has lost considerable support. But the Brothers—led paradoxically by a woman, Giorgia Meloni —have soared in popularity. Polls give the two parties around 37% of the vote. Add 8-9% for Mr Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and some smaller groups, and the right looks set for a convincing victory, perhaps a parliamentary majority that could let it govern for a full five-year term.
By contrast, the right’s adversaries are in comic disarray. Enrico Letta, leader of the centre-left Democratic Party , has precluded an electoral alliance with thebecause it too helped bring down Mr Draghi. Carlo Calenda, the leader of Action, a centrist group that has absorbed some Forza Italia refugees, seems open to a deal with the, but wants Mr Draghi to be the prime ministerial candidate rather than Mr Letta. And two small leftist parties are refusing to join if Mr Calenda does.
There are two parts to this. The first is whether a hard-right government would secure Italy’s full share of grants and low-cost loans from the’s pandemic-recovery programme, worth more than €200bn . “What has so far been achieved is the easy part,” says Francesco Grillo, director of Vision, a think-tank that monitors the programme’s implementation.
The danger is that his successor would further complicate the challenge by insisting on changes. Since Mr Draghi’s resignation, Ms Meloni has expressed dissatisfaction with aspects of the plan agreed with Brussels. Her party’s own ideas are set out in an online pamphlet that features prominently on the
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