Italy’s Campi Flegrei Supervolcano Edges Closer to Possible Eruption – Last Erupted in 1538 — According to new research, |
The Campi Flegrei volcano in southern Italy has become weaker and more prone to rupturing, making an eruption more likely, according to a new study by researchers at UCL and Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology .
Lead author Professor Christopher Kilburn said: “Our new study confirms that Campi Flegrei is moving closer to rupture. However, this does not mean an eruption is guaranteed. The rupture may open a crack through the crust, but the magma still needs to be pushing up at the right location for an eruption to occur.
“We will now have to adjust our procedures for estimating the chances of new routes being opened for magma or gas to reach the surface. A supervolcano refers to a volcano that has had an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index , meaning that it’s capable of erupting more than 1,000 cubic kilometers of material. Supervolcanoes can produce devastation on a nearly unimaginable scale, and such eruptions could result in severe changes in the global climate.
The disturbance has been caused by the movement of fluids about 3 km beneath the surface. Some of the fluids may be molten rock, or magma, and some may be natural volcanic gas. The latest phase of unrest appears likely to be caused by magmatic gas that is seeping into gaps in the rock, filling the 3 km-thick crust like a sponge.
In their paper, the team explained that the effect of the unrest since the 1950s is cumulative, meaning an eventual eruption could be preceded by relatively weak signals such as a smaller rate of ground uplift and fewer earthquakes. This was the case for the eruption of the Rabaul caldera in Papua New Guinea in 1994, which was preceded by small earthquakes occurring at a tenth of the rate than had occurred during a crisis a decade earlier.
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