Move over Turkey and Argentina, emerging markets investors have another country ...
LONDON - Move over Turkey and Argentina, emerging markets investors have another country to sweat over: South Africa.
On top of that, some politicians now want to tinker with the central bank’s remit, while South Africa’s largest trading partner, China, is being dragged deeper into a trade war with the United States. That will all influence another critical issue — the fate of South Africa’s last remaining investment-grade credit rating.
In the five months before S&P removed Brazil’s remaining investment-grade rating in 2015, the real lost 30% of its value against the dollar, while Turkey’s lira slumped 25% in four months before Fitch cut it to junk in 2017. Foreigners hold almost 40% of it though, and with the currency down 20% since February, it looks like some have already been selling: a year ago that figure was 43%.
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