The political and policy situation is contributing to that sense of uncertainty, but the job growth numbers are also contributing in one important way: so far this year they’ve been more volatile.
Even with average job growth coming in at 165,000 so far this year, the economy feels uncertain to many workers and employers. Is it time to hire? Should I look for a new job? Will wage growth pick up anytime soon?
One factor to consider is that the initial job growth numbers get revised. And when we look at the volatility in just the first estimates of job growth, which is what we are all used to seeing on jobs day, 2019 looks even more volatile. Using just the first estimates, volatility this year is the highest it’s been since 2010.
But also we should keep it in mind that this expansion has actually been relatively unvolatile. In the past two expansions, the typical variation in month-to-month job growth was much higher than it has been this time. However, even if the expansion continues at this rate, we all need to remember that the steady job growth we’ve often seen in this recovery was anomalous. So we may not be entering a recession...
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