Calling the Iranian commander's killing an outrageous 'act of war,' in supposed contrast to the previous state of affairs, denies reality—and plays right into Iran's hands.
Days after a targeted U.S. strike killed General Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, America and Iran are caught at a critical juncture, their horns locked and feet seeking traction.
At the strategic level, despite Einstein defining insanity as"doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results," one can never assume linear and continuous enemy reactions to repetitive action. While actions may recur, context is unique and ever-changing. The object of action is a responsive agent, adapting its learning curve at an unpredictable rate.
. Fourth, they seemingly bought into their own boastful propaganda that the U.S. president"can't do anything," mixing up. Finally, they forgot to calculate Donald Trump's mercurial and disruptive decision-making style. The decade-long 1980s"War of Sacred Defense" against Iraq is the Iranian regime's formative trauma. Fully aware of war's devastating costs, Iran abhors it, while leveraging others' natural fears of war as a strategic deterrent and coercive tool.
"The highest form of warfare," said Sun Tzu,"is to attack strategy itself." The U.S. strike on Soleimani and its follow-up messaging did just that, not only depriving Iran of its top revolutionary diplomat-strategist but shaking the fundamentals of its strategy. The United States demonstrated that Iran's attacks by proxy do not grant its forces, and possibly its territory, immunity from direct retribution.
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