Iran's audacious drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Arabia's oil producing facilities has provided a critical test yet for the Trump administration's foreign policy. A successful response will require both nerves and vision in a world of emboldened adversaries and perplexed allies, writes Fred Kempe.
"The Iranians – and other opponents of the United State in the region – have every reason to believe that Trump speaks loudly and carries a nonexistent stick,"Stephen A. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations in Foreign Policy. He argues that if the U.S. had responded to Iran's shooting down of the American drone on June 20 that the Iranians might "have thought twice" before their latest attacks.
Assuming Iran was responsible for the attacks, "the Iranians are testing the entire rationale for U.S. investment in the Middle East over the last 70 years," says Cook. "If Trump does not respond militarily, the United States should just pack up and go home."A far better response would be to understand that Iran is lashing out more from a position of weakness than one of strength.
An army of skeptics said this sounded too much like a NATO for the region, unachievable both due to Mideast divisions and US unwillingness to provide security guarantees. Over time, the concept has been watered down and gutted of the security aspects the region most needs. If the idea had got off the ground earlier, Carafano reckons "the recent attack on Saudi oil production might never have happened. Iran could have been deterred from messing with its neighbors.
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