Pete Buttigieg’s rise from 1% in the Register’s March poll to the top of it reflects the selling point of Iowa’s system, pollster J. Ann Selzer said.
DES MOINES, Iowa – Pete Buttigieg has rocketed to the top of the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll in the latest reshuffling of the top tier of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.
“This is the first poll that shows Buttigieg as a stand-alone front-runner,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “There have been four candidates that have sort of jostled around in a pack together, but he has a sizable lead over the nearest contender — 9 points. So this is a new status for him.”
Former U.S. Rep. John Delaney of Maryland and author Marianne Williamson were not named as a first choice by any poll respondents. According to the poll, 63% say they will definitely, rather than probably, caucus, an uptick of 3 percentage points since September. A majority – 63% – say it’s more important to nominate a candidate with a strong chance to beat the president than to nominate a Democrat who shares their positions on major issues. Thirty-two percent say the opposite.
For Buttigieg, the poll’s front-runner, just 27% of his own supporters say they are “almost certain” he will beat Trump. Selzer said that may be the worst number for Buttigieg in this poll.“If the most important thing is to win, his supporters don’t have that confidence that he’s the one to do it,” she said. “So as this goes forward, he has more convincing to do or someone else will rise up.”
Her slide into a statistical tie for second place with Biden and Sanders coincides with Buttigieg's rise. It’s the first time she’s slipped in the Iowa Poll. Buttigieg fares best of the four candidates, with 63% saying he’s “about right,” 13% calling him “too conservative” and 7% saying he’s"too liberal.”
Andrew Couch, a 22-year-old business analytics student at Iowa City's University of Iowa, said he likes Buttigieg, particularly his"Medicare for All Who Want It" approach to health care. He said he appreciates someone who can be relatively moderate but still call out flaws in the health care system. Warren is the second choice of 20% of likely caucusgoers, revealing an underlying strength for her, Selzer said. Buttigieg is the second choice of 14%, with Sanders and Biden at 13%. Harris has typically done well as a second choice, but at 7%, she is now only 1 point ahead of Klobuchar.
Although Biden and Buttigieg are seen as competing in the same moderate lane, a plurality of Buttigieg’s supporters back Warren as their second choice, whereas 25% of Biden’s supporters name Buttigieg as their second option.
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