With factories picking up pace again, consumers will buy more vehicles this year even if automakers have to help them manage rising interest rates by cutting today’s lofty prices.
“We are still seeing strong demand for our vehicles, but we’re mindful because the steady rise of average transaction prices is starting to come back a little,” General Motors Co. Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said at an Automotive Press Association event in December.
Total sales for 2022 were likely below 14 million units, the lowest since 2011, when the U.S. was climbing out of the depths of the Great Recession.Inflation and interest rates are squeezing some shoppers out of the new-car market and pushing up auto-loan defaults. Meanwhile used-car prices, which determine the trade-in values that many consumers use as currency when buying a new car, are falling.
Hollis is betting the industry will reach 15 million vehicles this year and could sell as many as 17 million if it weren’t for supply-chain issues. Tesla Inc. this week reported record deliveries but missed analysts’ estimates for the fourth quarter and came up short of its own targeted growth rate of 50% despite dropping prices.
The industry’s shift toward building high-margin trucks and SUVs has shrunk the pool of buyers who can afford a new car, he said. Prices are dropping on high-end vehicles, while demand for entry-level cars in the used market is still hot.Researcher Evercore ISI expects to see “pricing levers pulled for the first time in two years” in 2023, with sticker prices coming down $1,500 to $2,000 per car, according to a Dec. 23 research note.
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