The multi-front trade war being waged by the Trump Administration does have some winners and losers, at least in the relationship game. Mexico is winning, and China is losing
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In the trade war, Mexico is looking more like the partner it’s always been. China, on the other hand, is still on the skids. A Chinese Cosco Shipping container ship passing the Golden Gate Bridge bound for the Port of Oakland.Companies are indeed looking to source material elsewhere. Chinese companies, already considering a move to cheaper parts of southeast Asia, are relocating ahead of schedule. This is not a mass movement, but it’s a movement nonetheless.
Meanwhile, import growth slumped to a weaker-than-expected -8.5% from 4.0% growth in April, also in dollars. Measured in yuan, imports were also negative in May. As a result, China will step up its support of the local stock market and maybe provide more tax incentives for economic sectors with a lot of manual labor to keep people employed.
On the telecommunications systems side, Huawei is the 5G provider of choice for nearly every frontier and emerging market nation. Brazil recently said it was not going to let Trump talk them out of having Huawei build out their 5G system. Who can compete with Huawei on price?
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