In 2020, Midwest turnout will be key to Democrats' fortunes

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In 2020, Midwest turnout will be key to Democrats' fortunes
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In 2020, Midwest turnout will be key to Democrats' fortunes.

is going to be logging a lot of frequent flyer miles in and out of the Industrial Midwest and there’s a good reason for that. Those three states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, look like they will hold the keys to the White House. All were close in 2016 and President Trump’s narrow wins there carried him over the finish line.

Trump captured 304 electoral votes in 2016, well over the 270 needed to win, but without these three states in the Industrial Midwest, he would have come up short. The blow was even bigger for Democrats because their presidential candidate had won all three states in every election going back to 1992.

When you look at the 2016 vote totals in those states compared to 2012, a pattern emerges that has to make Democrats groan. In all three states, the big urban counties that produce big margins for Democrats , did not keep up with the voting pattern in the rest of the state. Milwaukee produced 12 percent fewer votes in 2016 than it did in 2012, while rest of the state saw a much smaller decline, only 2 points.

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