Babies born in 2023 should live as long as babies born in 2019
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently reported that life expectancy had dropped sharply in 2020 and 2021 largely because of COVID-19.
My expectation is that, assuming COVID does not flare up again, the CDC life expectancy in 2023 may be close to the 2019 number. Then COVID-19 hit in 2020, and since then more than 1 million people have died from the disease. As a result, death rates observed in 2020 and 2021 were considerably higher than in 2019. Period life expectancy is calculated on the assumption that babies born in 2020 and 2021 will live their entire lives with the elevated death rates that occurred in those years. That is, the pandemic is experienced each year over and over again as the baby ages.
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