As in Vladimir Putin’s regime, the list of rich Hungarians is filled with Viktor Orban’s friends. But the opposition have failed to get voters riled up about this
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskIn 12 years as prime minister Mr Orban had split the nation and enriched only his own supporters. He had turned Hungary towards Russia and autocracy, and away from Europe and the rule of law. Mr Marki-Zay promised support for thein Ukraine, inclusion for gay people and an economy based on merit rather than political connections.
The popularity of Mr Orban and Fidesz is genuine and striking. In the past two elections they have drawn about half the vote, while a fragmented opposition split the rest. That was enough to give Fidesz a two-thirds majority in parliament, because it had twisted the electoral system to its own advantage .
Such cross-party alliances have unseated populist leaders in other countries, including Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu and the Czech Republic’s Andrej Babis. Yet in Hungary Mr Marki-Zay’s chances are not good. Because of the mixed electoral system,calculates the opposition needs to win about 54% of the vote to get a majority in parliament. Polls show them trailing Fidesz by about 50% to 44%.One reason is Mr Orban’s domination of the media.
In poor rural areas, officials are told that if their municipality does not vote for Fidesz there will be no government jobs. After Budapest had the temerity to elect Gergely Karacsony of the Dialogue party as mayor in 2019, the national government slashed a local tax on businesses, depriving the city of about 20% of its budget, and vetoed a loan from the European Investment Bank to upgrade its trams.
The handouts will also accelerate inflation, which is projected to hit 9% this year, says Peter Virovacz ofBank. The government has capped the prices of basic foods and fuel, leading to shortages at petrol stations. Economic growth is strong, though the war in Ukraine has cut forecasts for this year to perhaps 4.5%. Unemployment is a scant 3.8%. The next government, though, will probably need to make unpleasant cuts.
That partly reflects the coalition’s breadth. Dialogue is an urban party that strongly supports gay rights. Jobbik is a rural nationalist party that used to engage in anti-Roma racism. The lack of conflict between such parties during the campaign is striking. Opposition voters, too, seem willing to set aside ideology. “I am economically more free-market, but that doesn’t matter now. The point is to get democracy back,” said Ben Tordai, a student at the rally on March 15th.
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