Some believed Elizabeth Warren's vagueness on healthcare presaged a pivot to the centre. That option now looks closed off
, Elizabeth Warren is the kind of politician who likes to show her maths. The Massachusetts senator has climbed near the summit of the Democratic presidential primary carrying amply footnoted and thoroughly costed plans on matters both prominent and obscure. She has plans for a wealth tax on the rich, for universal child care and cancelling student debt, yes, but also plans to promote competition among farmers, improve the funding of Native American reservations and relieve Puerto Rico’s debt.
Start with the spending. Over the next ten years Americans are expected to spend $52trn on health care. Under a generous single-payer system, spending would increase by $7trn, according to a recent study by the Urban Institute, a left-leaning think-tank, which serves as the starting point of the campaign’s calculations. Through a number of steps, Ms Warren whittles this difference down to zero.
Even with these steps, and the redirection of all existing public spending on health care, Ms Warren has a $20.5trn budgetary hole. Filling it is made harder by her insistence that taxes on the middle class will not increase. Currently employers shoulder a significant portion of health-care costs. Under Ms Warren’s plan, the same cheques would be redirected to the federal government. In practice this would be a tax on employment, which seems likely to hurt middle-class Americans.
To make up the shortfall, Ms Warren plans to add levies on large firms and rich Americans—beyond those she has already proposed. On top of the repeal of Mr Trump’s tax cuts and a new 7% charge on corporate profits, she would eliminate the ability of businesses to immediately write down depreciating capital; she would also impose a minimum tax of 35% on their foreign earnings. A new financial transactions tax of 0.
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