Analysis: Hillary Clinton got 2.9M more votes than Donald Trump in the 2016 election, but Trump comfortably prevailed in the Electoral College. It's possible in 2020 that he could win 5M fewer votes than his opponent — and still win a second term.
In the wake of President Donald Trump's tweets suggesting several nonwhite progressive congresswomen"go back" to their countries — three of them were born in the U.S. — it's tempting for Democrats to believe the comments will backfire with an increasingly diverse electorate and seriously damage his re-election prospects.
Over the past four years for which census estimates are available, California's population of nonwhite voting age citizens has exploded by 1,585,499, while its number of white voting-age citizens has declined by a net 162,715. The Golden State's GOP is in free fall: In May 2018, the state's Republican registrants fell tobehind"no party preference" voters for the first time. In 2016, Clinton stretched Barack Obama's 2012 margin from 3 million to 4.2 million votes.
Meanwhile, demographic transformation isn't nearly as rapid in the narrow band of states that are best-positioned to decide the Electoral College — a factor that seriously aids Trump. But Trump could lose Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win the Electoral College, so long as he carries every other place he won in 2016. And Wisconsin didn't provide as clear a verdict in 2018. Even with favorable turnout in a"blue wave," Democrats won Wisconsin's governor's race only by a point and failed to gain a House seat.
Over the past four years of Census data, it had the nation's eighth sharpest increase in the nonwhite share of voting age citizens. But the Sunshine State's trend lines favor Trump: The rapid influx of conservative Midwestern retirees to the Panhandle and Gulf Coast, along with Florida's, explain why GOP Sen. Rick Scott and GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis defied the"blue wave" in 2018.
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