Academics have built models to assess the probability of a putsch
TWO AGEING PRESIDENTS, one bad and one awful, were forced from office this month: Abdelaziz Bouteflika in Algeria and Omar al-Bashir in Sudan. Mr Bouteflika had been in power since 1999; Mr Bashir, since 1989. Their hasty and unlamented departures raise a question: how easy is it to predict a coup?
One obstacle to building a good coup-predicting model is that coups are extremely rare and becoming even more so. However, as our explains, social scientists now have more tools than ever before at their disposal. Perhaps the most rigorous quantitative forecast of sudden regime changes is CoupCast, published by One Earth Future, an NGO.CoupCast finds that economic misery is linked to higher coup risk, as is extreme weather. But political factors matter more. Dictators tend to lose popularity when they stay in office for too long. Autocrats who cling to power after losing elections are particularly likely to be deposed.
The strongest predictor of future instability is past instability. CoupCast rated Algeria the country most likely to experience a coup just before Mr Bouteflika's exit. As for who might be next, the leaders of Burkina Faso, Afghanistan and South Sudan should be nervous.
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