Baltic states are scrambling to identify individuals who might exploit them on behalf of Russia
was sent by a city tech worker: a single person could, in one fell swoop, disable almost every traffic light in Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital. It proved true, says Aurimas Navys, a former officer at Lithuania’s State Security Department. Mr Navys, who had received the tip despite his recent retirement, made sure the vulnerability was fixed.
Consider the following hypothetical example, says Stephen Flanagan, a specialist on eastern Europe at America’s National Security Council during Russia’s offensive in Ukraine. A rumour spreads that an ethnic Russian girl in Estonia has been raped. A local pro-Kremlin motorcycle gang is told to wreak havoc. The Kremlin, which has asserted a right to protect ethnic Russians abroad, might then send in troops.
Officials say they begin with tips, as well as hints of Kremlin sympathies. They might spot these in displays of military symbols or Vladimir Putin’s image, as well as in tweets, tattoos and even hairstyles. Such things often mean little in and of themselves, but officials say tracking them is useful.
A larger number of Balts, officials say, are recruited when they travel to Russia or its ally Belarus. Cigarettes and petrol are mostly cheaper there, so many people hop across the border, stock up, and sell the stuff once back home. Russian agents commonly approach Balts making these runs and offer money in exchange for help. Edvinas Kerza, Lithuania’s vice-minister of defence, says his country therefore works hard to identify Lithuanians engaged in this hustle.
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