The Russia-backed Assad offensive in Idlib tests relations between Moscow and Ankara, which has fiercely opposed the move
The latest skirmishes between the Russia-backed Assad regime and Turkey in Idlib, the last opposition bastion, have brought Ankara and Moscow close to a major confrontation as the two sides differ on the future of Syria.
Esref Yalinkilicli, a Moscow-based Eurasian analyst, thinks that Russia, which has several joint projects with Turkey from a Black Sea natural gas pipeline to S-400 deal, cannot “risk” a complete breakup with Ankara. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad attend a meeting in Damascus, Syria January 7, 2020. , demanded vast changes in the country’s governmental structure including major amendments to the constitution, triggering the cabinet to resign and installing a new government, which is supposed to implement his proposed reforms.
There are still fresh memories in Russia from the Soviets’ calamitous defeat in Afghanistan, where Moscow backed a puppet government, eventually triggering a powerful rebellion, which overthrew it later on. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already signalled that a large Turkish offensive is “a matter of time” to clear out the regime forces from areas around Ankara’s observation posts in Idlib.
While Russia might want to ease tensions in Idlib, “the situation appears to be out of Moscow’s control, particularly, on the ground,” Yalinkilicli said. Yalinkilicli thinks the situation has already reached an urgency and that the disagreement between Moscow and Ankara could only be addressed by the top leadership.
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