In 2020 Cyclone Amphan—thought to be the most powerful storm to form in the Bay of Bengal in two decades—killed around 30 people
, people in South Asia anxiously await the start of the monsoon season. More than 70% of the region’s annual rainfall arrives between June and October. Unusual rains almost always spell disaster. If the downpour is too little or too late, drought sets in. If there is too much rain, huge tracts of land disappear under the deluge. For parts of Bangladesh and India, this year has already proved catastrophic. Uncommonly heavy rain in May and June caused rivers to burst their banks.
The death toll will almost certainly increase in the coming days. But it is lower than might have been expected given the severity of the flooding. In July 2021, for example, heavy rain and flash-flooding in Belgium and Germany—countries much richer and less populous than Bangladesh—killed more than 180 people. In Bangladesh the number of deaths associated with such disasters has reduced dramatically. In 1970 Cyclone Bhola killed somewhere in the region of 300,000 to 500,000 people.
The answer lies in mitigation and preparation. In recent years the government and humanitarian groups have encouraged families to build “plinths”, mounds of earth that elevate homes, and “killas”, raised areas where livestock can be tethered. These let flood waters flow around them. Huge progress has been made, too, in warning the population.
They are likely to be busy in the years to come. Research led by Anja Katzenberger of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany suggests that for every 1°C by which global temperatures rise, the amount of rain released during the monsoon season will increase by 5%. Even the most optimistic predictions suggest temperatures will continue to rise throughout the 21st century. Melting ice in the Himalayas makes rivers in Bangladesh and India more likely to flood.
Deaths are also not the only metric to which it is worth paying attention. Each storm or flood forces people from their homes. The Environmental Justice Foundation, a charity in London, predicts that one in seven Bangladeshis will be displaced because of climate change by 2050. Many will wind up as unskilled urban poor, explains Animesh Kumar of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
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