America treats Hong Kong separately to China in economic terms. If the city loses its autonomy from Beijing, it could lose this privileged status too
in Hong Kong, the world is watching closely. Vladimir Putin, who this week had to deal with demonstrations of his own, can observe a fresh case study in the handling of discontent, for note-sharing at his next meeting with Xi Jinping, his partner in a new axis of authoritarianism. Britain, the former colonial ruler, called for calm and urged the Hong Kong government to heed the concerns of its people and its friends abroad.
Even before the latest troubles in Hong Kong, however, concerns were growing that it would get caught in the crossfire of President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. As restrictions on China led to the diversion of more transactions via Hong Kong, its privileged position has inevitably attracted attention. Transferring technology to Hong Kong may increasingly be seen as equivalent to passing it to China—not the intent of the Policy Act.
A lot is at stake. Hong Kong is China’s conduit. It accounted for nearly 60% of direct investment both into and out of China in 2012-16 . It has a mighty share of offshore yuan-denominated payments. Western firms put money and headquarters there because it is seen as part of the Western system. Its currency is tied to the American dollar. It ranks third in the world as a financial centre; its banking assets are worth a whopping 851% ofSuch might makes it vulnerable.
Whether actually killing that status would do anything to help Hong Kong’s protesters is doubtful. “That’s a gun you don’t want to shoot, frankly,” says Jeffrey Bader of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank. But the deepening strategic rivalry between America and China will bring greater scrutiny of Hong Kong. Under the Policy Act the president can suspend specific privileges by executive order if he deems Hong Kong insufficiently autonomous.
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