Hong Kong is not Tiananmen Square—but Xi won't hold back forever | Opinion

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Hong Kong is not Tiananmen Square—but Xi won't hold back forever | Opinion
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China is far more dependent on trade today than it was during the crackdown on 1989. But Xi also wants to resolve the situation promptly.

For the past month, citizens have Hong Kong have been protesting an extradition bill which would allow the city's Chief Executive to transfer criminals to other jurisdictions. Some observers see the possibility of another Tiananmen Square incident; others wonder if they will pose a major challenge to Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

In recent years, however, this commitment has steadily eroded. In 2014, during debates over Hong Kong suffrage, Chinese officials indicated that, while Hong Kong citizens would be granted voting rights as promised under the Basic Law, Beijing reserved the right to determine who could run for office. In effect, the PRC was declaring that it would have the final say over whom Hong Kong citizens could cast votes for.

Exacerbating this has been an increasingly open dismissal of the entire"one country, two systems" concept by Beijing. Most notably, in 2014, the Chinese National People's Congress issued a white paper on the principle of"one country, two systems." The white paper makes very clear that whatever rights and autonomy Hong Kong enjoys are not rooted in the Basic Law, but at the sufferance of the authorities in Beijing.

At the same time, the Chinese leadership undoubtedly recognizes the risks associated with a violent crackdown on the Hong Kong protestors. In 1989, China was not as dependent on trade as it is today. A bloody crackdown like that 30 years ago would undoubtedly lead to the imposition of sanctions and other measures that would further constrain the Chinese economy, already under pressure from the ongoing trade war with the United States.

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