New data show young women especially voted in higher numbers than usual
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES performed so well in last year’s mid-term elections that pundits dubbed the cycle a “big blue wave”. By another measure, it was more akin to a 100-year flood. The final count of ballots reveals that, at 50.3%, a higher share of America’s eligible voters turned out to vote than for any mid-term election since 1914. New data from the US Census Bureau shows that this was driven especially by young people, Hispanics, and those with a college degree.
Mid-term elections have tended to be affairs for the politically-engaged. It requires unusual attention to politics to go out and vote for a political representative you may not have seen much of. Presidential elections, on the other hand, suck up media attention and advertising dollars from up to two years before Election Day. Over the past century, the average turnout for mid-terms has been 43%—16 percentage points lower than average turnout in presidential contests.
Young women turned out in particularly high numbers. This is unsurprising given that the past two years have been marked by a series of women’s campaigns including the Women’s March and #MeToo movement. Among young voters, 33% of women reported voting last year, compared to 27% of men. That constitutes an increase of 16 and 13 percentage points compared to 2014 levels.
Mid-term elections are often referred to as referendums on the party in power. But 2018’s referendum was most unusual. Not only was turnout exceptionally high; voters also swung left in percentages not seen since 1974. According to Catalist, a data company, compared to the 2014 election, the 18-29 age group was 24 points more Democratic; college-educated voters swung 27 points to the left while Hispanics moved 16 points.
This is bad news for Mr Trump’s 2020 campaign. If these voters stay engaged until next November the president will face a big hurdle to his re-election. Meanwhile, longer term demographic changes give Democrats more cause for cheer: America is growing younger, darker-skinned and better educated.
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