President Donald Trump's administration announced Monday that buyers of Iranian oil must stop purchases by May 1 or face sanctions.
China and India are both unlikely to completely cut off Iranian crude imports, energy analysts have said, despite the imminent threat of U.S. sanctions.The move, which took many market participants by surprise, ends six months of waivers which had allowed Iran's eight biggest buyers of crude to continue to import limited volumes.
"China, which imports approximately 500,000 bpd , will make considerable cuts in the near term. For Beijing, securing the trade agreement with the U.S. is the top priority, and China will not link Iran oil imports to the trade talks." Alongside India and six others, China was one of the eight global buyers of Iranian crude that won exemptions from the U.S. last November.
"We think that China can't and won't back down this time and we could easily see an increase of Chinese oil imports from Iran up towards maybe 1 million bpd," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a research note published Tuesday. "New Delhi will cut imports substantially but probably maintain approximately 100,000 bpd of Iranian imports paid for using a rupee payment system. This is less an energy security decision than a political one."
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