Once home inventory hits 8 months of supply, 'the picture turns negative,' warns Morgan Stanley’s housing research team.
Pick any gloomy data point: Homes have been lingering on the market for months. Mortgage applications fell to a 22-year low. Rates on a 30-year fixed mortgages roughly doubled to touch almost 6% this summer.
The blue dots show home price appreciation rising 20% yearly, after inventory hit a low of 2.1-months in January . But those price gains have faded as supply climbed to the 4-month mark, with historical data pointing to a wobble beyond the 6-month mark. Their forecast is for home price appreciation to grow 9% in 2022 and 3% in 2023, but with the team “examining the downside risks to these calls” given the increasing pace of supply in recent months.
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