Market Overview Analysis by Steve Saville covering: XAU/USD, US Dollar Index Futures, Gold Futures, Crude Oil WTI Futures. Read Steve Saville's latest article on Investing.com
We aren’t geopolitical experts and do not know how the Israel-Hamas war will unfold*. Nobody does. There are far too many unknowns at this stage for even the geopolitical experts to do anything other than guess. What we are able to do is figure out what the markets are discounting, that is, what the majority of market participants currently believe will happen.
The subsequent price action indicates that the oil market has not ‘changed its mind’. We say this because the rebound in the oil price from its pre-war-news low looks more like a countertrend reaction than the start of a move to above the September 2023 high. Also, the extent of the backwardation in the oil futures market has decreased over the past week, which suggests less urgency to stock up on physical oil.
We’ll know that the perceived level of uncertainty/risk has increased significantly if the gold price breaks above US$2000. By the same token, we’ll know that the perceived level of uncertainty/risk has begun to wane when there is a clear downward reversal in the US$ gold price. Note that a downward reversal in the US$ gold price is likely to precede a turn for the better in the news from the Middle East.
Fed expected to keep rates on hold despite robust US GDP/personal consumption/spending data The monthly pace of core inflation ticked higher October’s PCE reading however is...
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