As the 2020 presidential race kicks into another gear, questions to ask when analyzing political polls.
In 2016, for instance, the averages had Hillary Clinton narrowly leading Donald Trump in the crucial battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.As the 2016 election also taught us, the national popular vote doesn’t decide the presidency; the Electoral College does.
And so while Clinton won the popular vote by more than 2 percentage points — confirming the national polls that showed her ahead — Trump won the Electoral College by carrying Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The same is also true for the presidential-nomination race: The national popular vote doesn’t decide who will face Trump in November 2020. Instead, the results from individual state contests do.Some polls show different results, because they were conducted during different time spans – and thus different events and news cycles.
Polls also have different samples and sample sizes. Was it conducted among 1,000 adults? 1,000 registered voters? 500 likely voters ?Also note that a margin of error in a horserace goes in both directions. So a poll’s margin of error of plus-minus 4.0 percentage points would require a candidate’s lead to be greater than 8 points to be considered outside the margin of error.
Maybe the biggest difference among polls is how they’re conducted. Are the questioners live human beings ? Or are they automated voices ?Gold-standard polls, like the NBC/WSJ survey, are live-caller polls with a large number of cell-phone interviews.
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