'Luminous phenomena' on the cards, but half a ton of debris could survive
Not that jettisoning the batteries had been the original intent. Between 2017 and 2020, the aging nickel-hydrogen power packs previously used on the ISS had to be swapped out for more powerful lithium-ion units. The old batteries were mounted onto cargo pallets for the Japanese HTV freighters, which would then depart the ISS and make a controlled re-entry.
This meant that the HTV freighter that brought the new batteries had to depart the station without the old ones, resulting in a left-over cargo pallet after the HTV program ended in 2020 with HTV-9. The program's replacement, HTV-X, is not due to commence supply runs to the ISS until 2025.that approximately half a ton of debris was likely to reach the Earth's surface.
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