A second term for President Donald Trump is more likely than not, Goldman Sachs said.
A second term for President Donald Trump is more likely than not, according to Goldman Sachs economists who analyzed the set-up for the 2020 election.
"The advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him," Hatzius said in a note on Saturday. "A strong economy should help the president's reelection chances...Political scientists have developed a number of election models over the years that rely mainly on economic variables to predict the two-party popular vote," Hatzius said.
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