Goldman Sachs' chief economist puts the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. over the next 12 months at 35% — far below some of the more dire predictions circulating.
terrible and a recession seems inevitable, there are signs that a "soft landing" is still possible. It's a "narrow path," Hatzius writes.Wages. Yes, most of us are out there lamenting that wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation. But when it comes to a soft landing, your slowly eroding paycheck is a good sign:
"The most encouraging recent step on the narrow path to a soft landing has been the slowdown in nominal wage growth," Hatzius writes. He points to a few data sets, including Goldman's own aggregated business survey data on actual or expected wage changes, which has fallen from 5.5% wage growth to around 4% now.Also:
Hatzius notes that GDP growth is slowing and the labor market is moderating in terms of fewer job openings and a falling quits rate.Asking rent prices are also slowing, according toBut that decline will take a while to show up in the official inflation numbers, as Fed chair Jerome Powell said"[T]here will come a point at which rent inflation will start to come down. But that point is well out from where we are now," Powell said.No one really knows anything.
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