Goldman Sachs Group analysts see potential for some more inflation cooling this summer.
“Our forecasts open up the possibility that the market may begin to focus more on the prospects of some inflation relief as we move into the second half of the year,” Goldman analysts Dominic Wilson and Kamakshya Trivedi said in an economics research note Monday. They said their current U.S. forecast is “looking for sub-3% sequential core inflation” through the second half of 2023, “beyond the next couple of prints.
The previous CPI report showed headline inflation eased to 4.9% in April on a year-over-year basis, down from last year’s peak of 9.1% in June when the cost of living in the U.S. surged to the highest rate in more than four decades. Core inflation ran at 5.5% in the 12 months through April. The U.S. and the global economy continue “to tread the narrow path where growth is slow but mostly non-recessionary” and inflation is normalizing, “albeit gradually and unevenly,” the analysts wrote.
“Surveys of goods supply constraints are largely back to pre-pandemic levels,” while U.S. wage measures continue to “trend lower,” the Goldman analysts said. “The missing piece of the puzzle is a more pronounced decline in core inflation measures themselves, but we see signs in the U.S. that this may now lie ahead.”
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